Monday, November 06, 2006

Things that will look forlorn tomorrow evening

And now, a post predicting the results of an election in a country not my own.

Tomorrow, our American friends and neighbours go to the polls to select a Congress for the last two years of the disastrous Bush administration*. Two years ago, I hosted possibly the worst party in the history of creation, as a large group of my friends and acquaintances watched the presidential election returns and grew steadily more depressed as the night wore on. What made it particularly depressing was that I had confidently predicted a landslide for that electoral dynamo John Kerry. It was a bad scene all the way around.

Nevertheless, just like the President, I refuse to learn from my mistakes, and so I am hosting another party to watch the election returns, and making bold and sweeping and almost certainly wrong predictions right here on this here blog. So, without further ado, my predictions regarding the Congressional elections tomorrow night:

In the House of Representatives, I think the Democrats will pick up 35 seats, giving them a majority of 238-197 over the Republicans. I've got a list of the specific seats they'll win, but much like Joe McCarthy I think I'll keep it under my hat for now. If I'm particularly prescient or howlingly off I'll publish the better picks.

In the Senate, I'm far less sanguine. I think the Democrats will win the seats they currently hold, including Maryland and New Jersey, but the pick-up picture is less clear. I'm pretty sure that Democratic candidates will win in Ohio and Pennsylvania. I'm pretty sure the Republicans will hang on in Arizona and Tennessee. Of the remaining races, I think Rhode Island and Montana are likely to go Democratic, while I'm less confident about Missouri and Virginia. Splitting the difference, calling Missouri for the Democrats and Virginia for the Republicans, that leaves the Democrats a seat short of the majority. I also think, unfortunately, that Joe Lieberman's going to hang on in Connecticut, so it might be more like 51-49 Republican than 50-50.

So it ought to be an interesting couple of years down south, if I'm right, as we all sweat out the last two years of the disastrous Bush administration. If I'm wrong, it might very well be another long November. (and December, and January, and...)

*I like to think that this is how future historians will distinguish this Bush administration from the previous Bush administration.

EDITED 'cause I can't sleep. House: Democrats plus 36, Senate they actually manage to pull off the six-seat swing. The Senate pick involves switching in Virginia, and the House pick ups will be NH-2, CT-4, CT-5, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-29, PA-6, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, OH-1, OH-2, OH-15, OH-18, KY-3, NC-11, IN-2, IN-8, IN-9, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, WI-8, IL-6, IA-1, TX-22, NM-1, CO-4, CO-7, WY-AL, ID-1, AZ-8, WA-8, and CA-11. That concludes your pre-election geekery.


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